Practical reasons for thinking that Flash is dying:
- You can't get flash on an iPhone, iPod or iPad
- IE9 looks like it could get HTML5 video
Idealistic reasons why Flash should be dying:
- The spec is controlled by a single entity.
- The Flash wire-format is binary. View-source is important.
- The Flash runtime can't be fully open-sourced due to patent encumbered codecs.
It's obvious, but you can't beat a good venn diagram:
The Idealism isn't having much effect.
There's a parallel post to this one, with the subject being the iPad instead of Flash, and that it's a Bad Thing when you're not allowed to tinker with devices that you own.
Idealistically the world would wait until something Chromey, Androidy, WebOSy or Maemoy came along out of principle. But we all know that's not going to happen however much we complain.
Shame really. All the talk is for nothing.